Maraging Partners did not buy "QE tapering" for Q3 2013

Friday, 05 July 2013 06:59

Maraging Partners, a Moscow-based currency consultancy, have published their market view for Q3 of 2013. The report covers EUR/USD, USD/RUB, and EUR/RUB, and combines news-based and quantitative approaches. Maraging Partners did not buy "QE tapering": "A storm in a teacup broke loose when FOMC press-release of June 19 said: "The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall." This sentence was taken as a signal of an up-coming tapering in the QE, even though the press release did not contain any changes in the planned volumes and time horizons of the QE. In other words, the amount of the actual QE currently underway and the amount of the planned QE for the period in question (till the next FOMC meeting) per unit of the estimated risk not only did not decrease, but in fact, increased." 

The full report is available on the Maraging Partners web site.

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