Canadian Dollar (CAD) LIBOR technical predictability overview - CAD LIBOR volatility

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Written by Mikhail Kopytine   
Wednesday, 19 November 2008 14:31
Article Index
Canadian Dollar (CAD) LIBOR technical predictability overview
CAD LIBOR volatility
CAD LIBOR autocorrelations
Correlations between CAD LIBOR maturities, s/n-o/n and longer terms
Correlations between CAD LIBOR maturities, 1-week and longer terms
Correlations between CAD LIBOR maturities, 1-month and longer terms
Correlations between CAD LIBOR maturities, 3-month and longer terms
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I use RMS of the logarithmic return distribution as a quantitative measure of volatility in LIBOR interest rates.

LIBOR volatility

Table 1: Day-by-day volatilities (RMS) for the time series of logarithmic returns in CAD LIBOR in 2002-2008, various maturities

duration time scalevolatility (RMS)
s/n-o/n day 1.6×10-2
week day 0.88×10-2
1 month day 0.63×10-2
3 months day 0.69×10-2
6 months day 0.94×10-2
12 months day 1.3×10-2

Volatility of CAD LIBOR has a minimum around 1-month term.

Distribution of logarithmic returns in s/n-o/n and 1-week CAD LIBOR rates Distribution of logarithmic returns in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month CAD LIBOR rates

Fig.2: Distributions of logarithmic returns in CAD LIBOR rates, top: s/n-o/n and 1-week, bottom: 1-month, 6-month and 12-month maturity. Volatility is a measure of the width of the return distribution.

The s/n-o/n and 12-month distributions look definitely broader than power-law (remember that with returns already containing logarithm and with the vertical axis explicitly logarithmic, we are looking at what is effectively a log-log plot, where any power law dependence would have looked linear, with different power law exponents resulting in different slopes).



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