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Any statistical test of market inefficiency requires a finite time of observation. The series of notes surveying historical inefficiencies of forex, posted here under the rhetorical title "Have the forex markets been efficient?", were based on data covering time interval of about five and a half years. In many cases, significant predictive correlations have been detected, having survived the time averaging process. To be of practical value for forecasting and algorithmic trading, these features have to be expectable in the future, at least in principle. A rare but huge event and a frequent one of a moderate magnitude may leave the same trace on the autocorrelation. At the very least, one must ensure that these time-averaged signals are not merely diluted residues of one or two rare events. The focus of this series of notes is time continuity, time evolution, and analysis of the origins of the now uncovered historically significant forex inefficiencies. |
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