EUR/USD and GBP/USD 2002-2008: Intermarket Correlations (Symmetric Predictive)

Euro/US Dollar and Pound Sterling/US Dollar are obviously correlated currency pairs. Due to the symmetry of the cross-correlation peak, a move in either pair can in principle be used to predict a move in the other: EUR/USD foretells GBP/USD and vice versa.

Table: Pearson correlation coefficient for the time series of logarithmic returns in EUR/USD and GBP/USD in various trading sessions in 2002-2008.

time scale Asia-Pacific session European session American session

The Asia-Pacific session shows the least correlation between the two currency pairs.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD intermarket correlation

Fig.1: Cross-correlation of EUR/USD and USD/JPY, derived from the hour-by-hour logarithmic returns, for the three trading sessions.

Fig.1 shows the intermarket correlation with one hour time scale and the range of lags of up to 12 hours, of interest to a day trader. The positive peak at the zero hour lag tells you that the currencies are correlated, or move in tandem. The height of the peak showing strength of the correlation varies session to session, we present the information textually in the table. The peak seems to be more than one bin wide, except for the Asia-Pacific session. The symmetry of the peak means that while it is true that a move in EUR/USD is followed by a move in the same direction in GBP/USD, it is equally true that an up or down move in GBP/USD may be followed by an up or a down move in EUR/USD. The market reaction is not instantaneous and it may take up to a couple of hours for the adjustment to finish (not true in the Asia-Pacific session). For trading EUR/USD and GBP/USD on the basis of the intermarket correlation strategy, the European and American sessions are the best time.