MaRaging Partners expect lower EUR/RUB by the end of Q1 2015

Sunday, 25 January 2015 16:40

MaRaging Partners, a Moscow-based currency consultancy, have published their FX market view for Q1 of 2015. The report covers EUR/USD, USD/RUB, and EUR/RUB, and combines news-based and quantitative approaches. Maraging Partners expect lower EUR/RUB by the end of Q1 2015:

All events of this crisis confirm Donald Rumsfeld's thesis that it is important to separate known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns, with unknown unknowns making the biggest impact.

The fact that our forecast of Ukraine being an exhausted topic turned out to be the most successful part of our previous issue may indicate that Ukraine now lies somewhere between the known knowns and the known unknowns.

The broadly anticipated economic decline in Russia, whose impact on the value of RUB is, thanks to the ideological orientation of the country's economic leadership, far from certain, also belongs to the group of known unknowns.

Logically, we can not discuss unknown unknowns, but we can try to expand our field of vision in order to at least look at them unknowingly.

See full text of the report on the MaRaging Partners web site.

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